Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Portfolio April 08

Last Time

The last post was on the 19th, but I've decided to take a quick break from the checklist, the valuation post has a ton of methods, and update the portfolio now, after some recent sells.

The current total amount of the portfolio is $9,069, subtracting $500 in cash I added and it's at $8,569 which is an 8% gain, representing a very strange up month, and here we'll find out why.

Positions

American Express (AXP) $967.72 11%

AXP is currently trading for $43.76, which is up 4% from $42 where it was on March 19th. It currently represents 11% of the portfolio, which is down a percent since the last post mainly because the portfolio as a whole is up higher than it is.

Since the last post American Express bought GE's money unit, but there hasn't been any other real news.

I currently believe American Express probably has too much allocation as opposed to its gain potential and would consider selling part of it if it goes up to around $50-5 to raise money for other positions with better potential.

Assorted Special Situations $1126 12%

These positions have moved around the most, I currently hold three special situations, but only one is the same from the last post.

I will continues to try to find good special situations and have raised a bunch of cash to invest in them.

K-Swiss (KSWS) $780.5 9%

K-Swiss traded at $14.65 in the last post, since it currently trades at $16.26 it is up 11% since the last post. It has 9% allocation, which is the same it had last month.

No news on K-Swiss, but I did write about it and have renewed confidence in its potential, and may invest more into it, depending on how Best Buy turns out.

Netflix (NFLX) $528.5 6%

I sold half of the positions as it neared an all-time high, but held the other half because I still like its long-term prospects and believe it offers a better return than cash, or any other opportunities I've found. It's up 14% in the last month.

I wrote about Netflix twice since the last post.

Overstock (OSTK) $1,258 14%

Overstock is up an amazing 47% since the last post (and up about 40% since my last average down). It now makes up 14% of the portfolio, up from 11% in March. I am now down only 2% from my average purchase price.

Overstock is up on no news, except for maybe my article, and I still see it as extensively undervalued.

Sears Holding (SHLD) $1,631 18%

SHLD is up about 7% in the last month, its allocations has fallen 2% because of the added cash and the portfolio rising as a whole.

Sears did a bunch of stuff in the last month including buying the footstar rights for its stores, which will save them a crapload of money, and will offer 10% bonuses to people who convert their stimulus check into K-Mart gift cards (I actually think my parents did this like 7 years ago with Target and I ended up getting a PS2 out of it so this is probably a good sign), but not a whole lot of news that would shock anyone.

Tandy Leather (TLF) $599.50 6.6%

Tandy is up 3% in the last month on no real news (it said sales will be down but nothing really happened).

I'll be interviewing Joe Koster again soon, and we'll talk about Tandy in that post.

Western Sizzlin' (WSZL) $1,372.55 15%

Western Sizzlin' is the lone stock to fall in the last month falling 4% after it suceded in getting on SNS's board, got turned-down by Itex shareholders, got controlling interest a fund that gives it $55 million more to invest, and it filed its 10k (at which I have yet to look).

I believe Western Sizzlin' offers the best potential returns among all my current positions.

Sold Positions

Steve Madden (SHO)

I wrote about this here.

Sybase (SY)

Sybase was the other tender offer I held, we called the morning of the expiration date, but it expired on a Monday at 9 am (est), and Scottrade offices in Utah don't open until 11 (est) so go figure. They were gonna charge us $25 to tender the shares with no guarantee we'd even get the current price, so we sold our shares for a gain that pretty much covered the $14 commissions.

Penn National (PENN)

No negative news on this one, I just think I can find some better situations with more certainty.

Potential Buys

Steak & Shake (SNS)

This is the restaurant that Biglari is currently acting as an activist with, see this presentation for more info on its investment opportunity.

Marathon Acquisition

I don't know a whole lot about this, not really much of anything actually, but there is potential I believe and have printed about 50 pages of stuff on SPACs to read today.

Best Buy

I talked about this one last time as a potential addition and have been analyzing it with my Right Price Checklist series.

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