Sunday, April 27, 2008

Overstock CC Notes

Here are my notes to the Overstock (OSTK) conference call I think is still undervalued, and this great quarter porves they are turning around. Any notes are in italics

• Revenue 201 mln up 27%

• Fullfillment partner growth 33%

• 17.3% gross margins

• Gross profits up 37%

• Marketing expenses up 33%

• Technology and SG&A down 6%

• Operating expenses down 9%

• Expenses up 6% w/o restructuring Though a lot of this is D&A, and CapEx has been falling

• Repurchased 5% of outstanding shares at $10.81 per shares Great return on those already, may have bought on the same day I did ;-)

• 3rd consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA, $3.5 mln vs. -$8.3 mln last year which is an OK measure b/c D&A is artificially high

• On ttm basis OCF became positive, $27 mln vs -$12 mln

• $90 mln in cash and marketable securities

• SEC said break-down revenue more and estimate on expected arrival date

• NO OTHER ISSUES surprisingly, and SEC approved their partner revenue accounting

• CapEx will be falling off, D&A will go away for most part

• Wish they had purchased more shares

• Brisk revenue growth acceleration He likes the word brisk now appearently, said it twice

• “We told you it would turn around by contribution, then gross profit then by revenue… gross profit growth at 37%, contribution at 41%, that’s what we want to see.” I like how none of the journalists who said they were crap have argued against this, proof Byrne is not crazy!

• Operating expense grew faster than revenue growth, then it got under after exiting the ‘inferno’

• In Q4 2006 cc said, “Contribution is going to be close to 10%. It is going to be far better than it has been.” It’s now at 9.8%, in a quarter with super bowl commercials

• All about generating contribution dollars

• Contribution dollar growth comes on essentially same revenue, just doubled efficiency on marketing

• Had built expense structure for $2 bln company, needed to get to a $800 mln company, %down from 30% to 19.5%, a lot is still D&A and this will be dropping a lot

• Probably $10 mln in CapEx this year

• D&A dropped about $8 mln this year may make them GAAP profitable

• Said, “We’re spending a lot of time to become more profitable. And we are willing to make some trade-offs between lower growth and higher profitability.” Now EBITDA has gone from -$15 mln to $3.5 mln in two years, This is what happens when you focus on an already good business, that 'any idiot can run.'

• Done what they said they would do, restructured the business

• Gone from OCF of -$40 mln+ to $27 mln now, in two years

• Inventory turns to 27x up from >10, maybe 30x is normalized. 6.8x on direct basis, turning inventory twice as fast as used to, can grow that business without growing inventory, so w/o more capital this means even though direct business (which is selling inventory from warehouse) doesn't have high returns relative to the partner business they can still get higher returns than they had because of this vast improvement

• Huge inventory liquidation, comfortable with amount of inventory now

GMROI 695% ttm Investopedia says this is: "An inventory profitability evaluation ratio that analyzes a firm's ability to turn inventory into cash above the cost of the inventory. It is calculated by dividing the gross margin by the average inventory cost and is used often in the retail industry."

• 2005 AMEX customer service not in top 200

• 2006 number 4

• 2007 number 4, now above Nordstrom

• Net Promoter Score at all time high at 73%, even people who contact customer service at 28%, three times average company this is from The Ultimate Question: Driving Good Profits and True Growth

• Launched Overstock Cars I think this has potential to become a big grower

• Auctions adding tailwinds in earnings, expect more in next six months

• International expect to launch in June or July Also huge potential

• Community tab

• New tab this quarter

• Prime Broker suit, in second round of discovery

• Rocker & Gradiant, has progress, Judge lifted discovery stay, will begin trading documents

• Think Rocker’s libel suit is bogus and they will not win

• In a good place with litigation

• Bear Sterns may have been brought down by illegal naked short selling




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