I just listened to the K-Swiss conference call and came off with very negative sentiments.
Not only does management seem to be ignoring the fact that its domestic business is continuing to free fall - spent more time talking about athletes it has marketing contracts with than about it negative growth and how to fix that - Royal Elastics, who's 2006 profitability was part of my original thesis, continues to lose double digits cents per share.
I'm heavily disappointed with this - as is the market who has sent its shares down $5 in the last week - and almost sold my shares this morning.
However management has proven itself able to continually produce good returns on capital, its returns remain above the rest of the shoe industry at 21%, and is now trading at only 12x cash flow.
Thought I may have been stupid enough to hold my shares above $40 I'm not stupid enough to sell them at $23 when its the cheapest stock, earnings wise, I own and has a history of good capital management - it still has the best returns and best balance sheet in the industry.
Adding Cash
I will be adding $3000 to my account in the next week and will be using this to increase current position sizes and start new positions in two stocks I've been analyzing over the past few weeks.
Friday, July 27, 2007
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8 comments:
Mike, you're down nearly 50% on KSWS, meaning you'll need a 100% return from here just to break even and much more to earn a reasonable return. Even at $23, if the stock rebounds in 2 years and gets to say $50, assuming you bought KSWS last year, you've made $10 or 25% in 3 years, which annualized is a very poor return. You need to make a decision in terms of either buying more KSWS and going by what Bill Miller says -lowest avg cost wins - or maybe sell some and see how you feel. Walking away from losers is something every investor, value investors included, need to learn how to do. Also keep in mind to look at other metrics like EV/EBITDA. KSWS is valued fairly healthy with an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x. Look at ALDA, a company that also generates very strong return metrics. It trades for 5.5x EV/EBITDA compared to the 7.5x KSWS trades for but look at how much that stock has fallen from its highs. Microcaps can languish at low levels for a very long time.
I'm actually up on my K-Swiss investment.
Also K-Swiss is not a micro-cap
Oh sorry, I read your post as saying your bought at $40, nevermind then.
There is an opportunity cost loss of 50% because I didn't sell at $40 but I bought the stock about three years ago so I have a again on it now.
Thanks
-Mike
Can't vouch for KSWS but a lot of shoe companies have been having difficulties lately. Just take a look at the charts of FL, FINL, etc. I'm not saying they compare directly to K-Swiss but I suspect that there are industry-wide issues right now.
Listen, the cigar butt thing worked for a while, but I think it's time to change your thinking. If I can be the Charlie Munger here, you need to look into gold and oil. Buy quality. Look at the books of the US.
Mike, keep up the good work!
To some of the comments:
Sivaram Velauthapillai: I wouldn't compare KSWS to FINL or FL. Although they both are in the "shoe" industry FINL and FL are retailers (although KSWS is opening up some flagship type stores this is diff.), which is a much diff. animal than KSWS's low capex-based business model. FINL also has issues specific to it.
anonymous: what do you mean "the cigar butt thing worked for a while"? He's up on his KSWS investment. Value investing will sometimes work and sometimes not work but over the long haul it works. Why change into gold/oil? Is that based on a call on the market? If so, not every stock follows the market so I don't see how you can just blantantly say to switch into gold/oil. This is not a pitch for or against KSWS but there are stocks out there that are undervalued that will perform well in a down mkt.
Looks like you may have read Mary Buffett's books on Warren Buffett? You could write one yourself and publish it PDF style with a password.
I can do that for you, Ha Ha!
I will be your first customer.
ShelbyCraft.com
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