Friday, May 18, 2007

Emotion and Some Changes

I always wondered why I did everything correctly for the most part but still made so many investing mistakes and never wanted to write anything about my decisions.

After every article I wrote, I saw that I had learned more from writing then just reading and for the next week or so acted as I said I should in the article.

But, then I would find a tip or hint or some kind of recommendation for a stock that I didn't quite understand but thought would go up. So I'd buy it and write as much as I knew trying to convince myself it was a good buy.

Well this practice never worked and I have a theory on the psychology behind it.

I can't place the book I originally read this theory in but it fits pretty well.

Even though I understood how to successfully run a blog and had ideas three times a week for articles and knew how to pick stocks and how much work needed to be done, I would sell my self short buying stocks on tips without much research and not writing articles very often.

This may sound like an excuse but I believe it is the reason. In my mind I was scared that even if I did things correctly and wrote three times a week and did a schisse-load of research on every company before purchasing, and researched stocks to turn them down not to find reasons to buy them, I may not still may not succeed and I still may get bad returns or have low page views.

Because of this I sub-consciously or maybe consciously did just enough to be recognized as knowing what I was doing but not enough to run a good blog or run a good portfolio.

I'm hoping that now I have recognized this I will be able to fix it and set my portfolio up for success.

Unfortunately, I work four days a week and am anticipating working full-time during the summer and won't be able to run the blog very well becuase of time restraints, but will try to update on any moves I make as I move them.

What am I doing now?

So I sold everything I didn't have time to follow and understand enough (ICO and PFE which amounted to north of one/third of the portfolio) and have found a bunch of ideas to reserach hopefully one of these will end up becoming a buy.

I now have just under 50% of my portfolio in cash, this is not because of any decisions I've made on the directions of the market but because I recently sold the above mentioned companies and have not bought anything new as of yet.

The next thing I do will be to re-analyze each of my current positions (KSWS, OSTK and WU) and add or subtract from each position appropiately.

Then I'll begin my search for new positions.

Also I will keep searching for special situations I can take advantage of with my large percentage of available cash.

Books


The Dhandho Investor: The Low - Risk Value Method to High Returns

How to Think Like Benjamin Graham and Invest Like Warren Buffett

Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking

The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming (and Environmentalism)

The Politically Incorrect Guide(tm) to Capitalism (Politically Incorrect Guides)

1 comments:

nikeelevet said...

I think there might be a "psychological bias" at work here. There was a study that showed when people resist temptation for a period of time, their ability to resist weakens. Personally I think the best thing to do is do nothing or go take a little nap to recharge your resistance.

Remember to look on the positive side :), it's great that you are learning from your mistakes early.