Sunday, July 05, 2009

New Post

I just posted my new investment 'manifesto,' on the new blog, all future posts will be on this blog.

You can find it here.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

New Site

I'm almost finished with the new site, and have added the first post.

The whole archive is there and the newest post is on Overstock's Quarter

The site can currently be found at soon this will be changed the

The new site looks better and I believe makes the whole 'experience' a little better.

This blogspot blog will mainly stay how it is to kinda serve as an archive.


Thursday, June 12, 2008

Quick Update

I'm planning on moving my blog to Tyepad to use a cleaner template and offer some more stuff, and a week ago I transferred all the old posts.

I had to change all the code for this site to transfer them, and before I could change it back we left on vacation to a house without a usable computer.

The site should be back to normal now, look forward to the new site soon.


Monday, June 02, 2008

Portfolio Review 6-02

I graduated High School last week and we left the next day to Chicago for summer vacation, and I now have enough time to sit down and get this portfolio review written.

I'm finished with High School, so I probably won't have too much trouble getting these posted around the 15-20th of the month, hopefully.

To start the current value of the portfolio is, $9,855.32, up around 9%, even though currently 10+% of the portfolio is in cash.

As usual I'll go over my current positions, sold positions and positions in which I'm interested. Also, in this post I'm going to write about something I've started with ym dad's portfolio to guage the reuslts.

Current Positions

American Express (AXP) $995.50 10%

American Express again stayed mostly still up just 3% since last month, I've stopped paying attention to it for the most part, because I don't have any worries about its brand or management.

Looking at the chart it got up to about $55, and its down to $45.25 now, if it gets back up in that range again, I may sell depending on whether or not I find any good new companies to purchase.

K-Swiss (KSWS) $1,164.9 12%

I purchased $283 more of K-Swiss on April 28, after re-examining my position, and continue to be confident in its current turn-around.

The stock price is up 7.5% over the past month on no real news other than its purchase of a French Shoe comapny, at which I ahev yet to look.

I think K-Swiss is currently one of my top positions in terms of potential over the next 2-3 years, and look forward to holding it for a while.

Netflix (NFLX) $432.46 4%

Netflix dropped about 25% in a day after my last post, because it thinks it will miss earnings by two cents, which is a heinous reason for a sell-off.

I've been getting more and more into the Phillip Fisher/Charlie Munger, 'hold good companies forever' thesis and would like to hold Netflix as long as it stays a good business regardless of where its valuation goes, this is also the reason behind my holding of all my Overstock position. (OSTK) $2,266.83 23%

Overstock is up 80% since the last the last month, despite coordinated hatchet jobs by a convicted felon and other 'journalists,' usuing innuendo, mangled numbers, and mis-used facts to try to scare up a drop in the price.

It's up on a combination of a good first quarter, and a Byrne interviewing stating that he thought they could potentially have $10 mln in profit on $1 bln in sales.

This seems like a long-shot, but if they keep going as they have, and Byrne doesn't get distracted, it could be possible, escpecailly with a good Christmas season.

Overstock is up to 23% of my portfolio, and I actually have a 250+% gain on my average down on March 3rd. I don't intedt on selling this unless it seems the business is broken or there is any credible evidence Byrne is a crook.

Sears Holding $1,340.48 14%

Sears fell 18% on a bad Q and some downgrades.

The market seems to be ignoring the very strong online growth, and the fact that the best current capital allocator in the world is running the show.

Look for the hire of a new CEO, hopefully one with a better grasp of how to turn-around a retailer, and if no turn-around look for Lampert to start selling off the brands, even if the company caan't make money, the real-estate and brands are worth a lot more than the current price.

Also, I read an article complaining that Lampert hadn't used any of Sears' cash to buy shares of undervalued companies, but instead he had been buying back shares of Sears. I'm not an investing expert quite yet, but is this not the best possible signal to investors that the best value investor out there thinks its undervalued?

Tandy Leather $979.44 10%

Tandy is up 5% on 10% sales growth.

I interviewed Joe Koster on the stock, and increased my position with a buy at $3.12

Western' Sizzlin $1,335.69 14%

Western Sizzlin's is down 3%, mostly on news of the Steak n' Shake move, which I'll talk about next.

Steak n' Shake $338.14 3%

I've purchased a small position in Steak n' Shake, the company where Sardar Biglari is currently working his magic.

The situation is very similar to that of Friendly's where he got a 70% gain, and I'm looking for that potential here.

I view it as a special situation which explains the small allocation, my initial purchase was made at $7.67 per share for a total cost of $413.51

Sold Positions


Jalen was a going private transaction in which I participated.

My inital purchase was 47 shares for $8.35, or $399.45, on March 3rd, on May 22nd I received $479.87 for my shares.

This is a 20% gain in a little under three months, which I'll take any time I can get it.

New Philosophy Theories

I've run my Dad's IRA for him for about three years, for the past few months he's had about 10% of it in cash.

I've decided to use some of that cash for an experiment of the next couple of years.

I'm going to buy some very small positions (.5% - 2%) that have high risk, but also high reward.

These aren't just maybe huge returns read about it in a newsletter and buy picks, I have done research on each and feel they have the potnetial for very high returns, but I am uncertain what the extent of the risk is.

Here are a few examples of companies that I have bought:

Pep Boys (PBY)

Pep Boys traditonally ran two businesses, one where they fix cars (grease monkey type) and one where they sell auto parts (Autozone). This gave them a lot of growth for a while, and Peter Lynch actually loved them, but their old management couldn't focus and they had very volatile sometimes negative earnings.

New management was brought it, who have them focused on the grease monkey business, and combine that with a liquidation value (they own all their stores and the land on which it resides) well above the current price and there is a very big potential for a high return here.

Borders (BGP)

This is an activist/turnaround play - Seth Klarman recently bought a ~6% stake.

Crocs (CROX)

The market thinks this is a fad, but if it bears any semblence of staying in the business long-term it is crazily undervalued right now.

The author or his family own shares of each comapny mentioned. This article does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Picture of me with Mohnish Pabrai & David Lau

I was looking through a BRk Meeting photo album of David Lau's and found this picture of me with him and Mohnish Pabrai, there's also one with Joe Koster, you can find them here:

With Mohnish Pabrai

With Joe Koster

In the second one I look a little strange, my pants were too long ;-)